The Future of the Democratic Party

[Dr. Medulla]

New Yorker piece on Gretchen Whitmer: https://archive.ph/TYBwO

Given the paucity of plausible successors to Biden, you'd have to think that someone young and succeeding the Midwest has Democrats thinking hard about her for '28.

Great writeup. I've been banging the Whitmer drum for a while now (from an armchair pundit vantage, not necessarily a personal endorsement), and this article jibes with my impressions.

I think one of her biggest challenges is just timing. Assuming Biden wins reelection, that makes the next presidential election really, really tough for a Democrat. So would she try to keep her powder dry until 2032 so she doesn't become an also-ran? That's an awful long time away.

One unknown is, assuming Biden wins in 2024, what happens to the Republican party? Does it continue on its trajectory of nativist grievance purity, which is to say abandoning the usual compromise and persuasion of any party that seeks to build a coalition? If so, the conventional wisdom about third terms may not be operative. Canada's going thru the same kind of thing, with conventional wisdom saying that it is historically unlikely for Trudeau/the Liberals to win a fourth-straight election. But it's complicated by the fact that the Conservatives are so bound to their base that they aren't speaking to anyone but the already converted. Conventional wisdom assumes the two main parties seeking to appeal, in some fashion, to the centre. If the right decides to, in essence, abandon politics, that changes a lot.

[Flex]

One unknown is, assuming Biden wins in 2024, what happens to the Republican party? Does it continue on its trajectory of nativist grievance purity, which is to say abandoning the usual compromise and persuasion of any party that seeks to build a coalition? If so, the conventional wisdom about third terms may not be operative. Canada's going thru the same kind of thing, with conventional wisdom saying that it is historically unlikely for Trudeau/the Liberals to win a fourth-straight election. But it's complicated by the fact that the Conservatives are so bound to their base that they aren't speaking to anyone but the already converted. Conventional wisdom assumes the two main parties seeking to appeal, in some fashion, to the centre. If the right decides to, in essence, abandon politics, that changes a lot.

As I was typing that, it did occur to me that the Republican Party would probably just nominate Trump again if he's not dead by then. Undercutting my own speculation, it's probably a fool's errand to try to speculate this kind of stuff this far out. So many different things could happen between now and then. As the last mid-terms show, we're not locked into an endless pattern even if it feels that way. As some guy once said, the future is unwritten.

[Dr. Medulla]

One unknown is, assuming Biden wins in 2024, what happens to the Republican party? Does it continue on its trajectory of nativist grievance purity, which is to say abandoning the usual compromise and persuasion of any party that seeks to build a coalition? If so, the conventional wisdom about third terms may not be operative. Canada's going thru the same kind of thing, with conventional wisdom saying that it is historically unlikely for Trudeau/the Liberals to win a fourth-straight election. But it's complicated by the fact that the Conservatives are so bound to their base that they aren't speaking to anyone but the already converted. Conventional wisdom assumes the two main parties seeking to appeal, in some fashion, to the centre. If the right decides to, in essence, abandon politics, that changes a lot.

As I was typing that, it did occur to me that the Republican Party would probably just nominate Trump again if he's not dead by then. Undercutting my own speculation, it's probably a fool's errand to try to speculate this kind of stuff this far out. So many different things could happen between now and then. As the last mid-terms show, we're not locked into an endless pattern even if it feels that way. As some guy once said, the future is unwritten.

It is worth acknowledging that you predicted DeSantis bombing for being an uninspiring campaigner, so you have some speculation cred.

[Flex]

It is worth acknowledging that you predicted DeSantis bombing for being an uninspiring campaigner, so you have some speculation cred.

Also, yes, people should acknowledge my greatness more often. Thank you for that. Now, no one go back and look at my many non-existent wrong-ass predictions, please.

[oliver]

the Republican Party would probably just nominate Trump again if he's not dead by then.

Even dead he's probably winning that clown show.

[Dr. Medulla]

the Republican Party would probably just nominate Trump again if he's not dead by then.

Even dead he's probably winning that clown show.

At this point, it can't be ruled out. He's the official nominee of the now-renamed—no, rebranded—Trump Party with Don Jr and Eric serving as proxies. Some kind of prince regent scenario except with a dead ruler.

[Flex]

the Republican Party would probably just nominate Trump again if he's not dead by then.

Even dead he's probably winning that clown show.

At this point, it can't be ruled out. He's the official nominee of the now-renamed—no, rebranded—Trump Party with Don Jr and Eric serving as proxies. Some kind of prince regent scenario except with a dead ruler.

Somehow, I always knew American democracy would end in an emulation of Weekend at Bernie's.

[Dr. Medulla]

the Republican Party would probably just nominate Trump again if he's not dead by then.

Even dead he's probably winning that clown show.

At this point, it can't be ruled out. He's the official nominee of the now-renamed—no, rebranded—Trump Party with Don Jr and Eric serving as proxies. Some kind of prince regent scenario except with a dead ruler.

Somehow, I always knew American democracy would end in an emulation of Weekend at Bernie's.

It'll finally be recognized as Frank Capra's final film!

[matedog]

Guy I used to work with made a good chunk of change off of Tesla stock and now I don't work with him anymore. Anyway, I periodically check his twitter because he is just a massive Elon fanboy and it's fun to be disgusted by him. I was curious as to his take on the re-brand and he hasn't chimed in yet.

I did find out he is a huge RFK Jr. supporter though.

[Flex]

Guy I used to work with made a good chunk of change off of Tesla stock and now I don't work with him anymore. Anyway, I periodically check his twitter because he is just a massive Elon fanboy and it's fun to be disgusted by him. I was curious as to his take on the re-brand and he hasn't chimed in yet.

I did find out he is a huge RFK Jr. supporter though.

I'm somewhat impressed he didn't lose all his money in NFTs, from the sounds of him

[Dr. Medulla]

Guy I used to work with made a good chunk of change off of Tesla stock and now I don't work with him anymore. Anyway, I periodically check his twitter because he is just a massive Elon fanboy and it's fun to be disgusted by him. I was curious as to his take on the re-brand and he hasn't chimed in yet.

I did find out he is a huge RFK Jr. supporter though.

*sniff sniff* I'm detecting hints of Joe Rogan fan, as well.

[Flex]

Guy I used to work with made a good chunk of change off of Tesla stock and now I don't work with him anymore. Anyway, I periodically check his twitter because he is just a massive Elon fanboy and it's fun to be disgusted by him. I was curious as to his take on the re-brand and he hasn't chimed in yet.

I did find out he is a huge RFK Jr. supporter though.

*sniff sniff* I'm detecting hints of Joe Rogan fan, as well.

Oh, sorry, that's on me. I forgot to take out yesterday's bad shellfish

[Dr. Medulla]

Guy I used to work with made a good chunk of change off of Tesla stock and now I don't work with him anymore. Anyway, I periodically check his twitter because he is just a massive Elon fanboy and it's fun to be disgusted by him. I was curious as to his take on the re-brand and he hasn't chimed in yet.

I did find out he is a huge RFK Jr. supporter though.

*sniff sniff* I'm detecting hints of Joe Rogan fan, as well.

Oh, sorry, that's on me. I forgot to take out yesterday's bad shellfish

Uncanny how the two smells are almost identical!

[revbob]

Guy I used to work with made a good chunk of change off of Tesla stock and now I don't work with him anymore. Anyway, I periodically check his twitter because he is just a massive Elon fanboy and it's fun to be disgusted by him. I was curious as to his take on the re-brand and he hasn't chimed in yet.

I did find out he is a huge RFK Jr. supporter though.

I used to work with some musk fanboys. To their credit they have become disgusted with him over the past few years. What I dont get is how did they not see he was an asshole with a made up backstory to begin with?

[Dr. Medulla]

Guy I used to work with made a good chunk of change off of Tesla stock and now I don't work with him anymore. Anyway, I periodically check his twitter because he is just a massive Elon fanboy and it's fun to be disgusted by him. I was curious as to his take on the re-brand and he hasn't chimed in yet.

I did find out he is a huge RFK Jr. supporter though.

I used to work with some musk fanboys. To their credit they have become disgusted with him over the past few years. What I dont get is how did they not see he was an asshole with a made up backstory to begin with?

People rationalize it by making the assholery something principled and in defiance of something oppressive (bureaucracy and conventionality in Musk's case). Sometimes a hero has to be an asshole is the argument. John Lydon's a good example in the music world. Yeah, he's a prick, but he's speaking truth to power, man! Well, maybe sometimes, but it might be coincidental than true principled conviction. If a person gains from their behaviour, there's a solid reason to think their actions might be something less than noble and principled.