Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017
Posted: 28 Sep 2017, 10:06am
Second place is just King Loser. C'mon picks, keep on dying!
If you had bet me $1,000 that he was still alive, I'd have been down $1,000.
Same. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Just so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑01 Oct 2017, 10:42amSame. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Right. It has to do understanding that Monty knows what's behind all the doors and not being seduced by the belief that we got it right the first time. The best of illustrating this is to think of it as if there were 100 doors and Monty reveals 98 false doors, leaving your pick and one other. What is more likely, that you picked the right one out of 100 or that Monty eliminated all but the winning door? It really is a bastard of a mindfuck that goes against our intuitive sense of probabilities, but the math is right.JennyB wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:18pmJust so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑01 Oct 2017, 10:42amSame. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Monty Hall was one magnificent bastard.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:29pmRight. It has to do understanding that Monty knows what's behind all the doors and not being seduced by the belief that we got it right the first time. The best of illustrating this is to think of it as if there were 100 doors and Monty reveals 98 false doors, leaving your pick and one other. What is more likely, that you picked the right one out of 100 or that Monty eliminated all but the winning door? It really is a bastard of a mindfuck that goes against our intuitive sense of probabilities, but the math is right.JennyB wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:18pmJust so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑01 Oct 2017, 10:42amSame. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
70 year marriage, too. She died four months before him.JennyB wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:31pmMonty Hall was one magnificent bastard.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:29pmRight. It has to do understanding that Monty knows what's behind all the doors and not being seduced by the belief that we got it right the first time. The best of illustrating this is to think of it as if there were 100 doors and Monty reveals 98 false doors, leaving your pick and one other. What is more likely, that you picked the right one out of 100 or that Monty eliminated all but the winning door? It really is a bastard of a mindfuck that goes against our intuitive sense of probabilities, but the math is right.JennyB wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:18pmJust so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑01 Oct 2017, 10:42amSame. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Awww...that's really sweet.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:33pm70 year marriage, too. She died four months before him.JennyB wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:31pmMonty Hall was one magnificent bastard.Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:29pmRight. It has to do understanding that Monty knows what's behind all the doors and not being seduced by the belief that we got it right the first time. The best of illustrating this is to think of it as if there were 100 doors and Monty reveals 98 false doors, leaving your pick and one other. What is more likely, that you picked the right one out of 100 or that Monty eliminated all but the winning door? It really is a bastard of a mindfuck that goes against our intuitive sense of probabilities, but the math is right.JennyB wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 12:18pmJust so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?Dr. Medulla wrote: ↑01 Oct 2017, 10:42am
Same. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
BostonBeaneater wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 3:38pmTom Petty is in trouble, massive heart attack. This is a bad day all about.
It's official: he backed down.BostonBeaneater wrote: ↑02 Oct 2017, 3:38pmTom Petty is in trouble, massive heart attack. This is a bad day all about.