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Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 28 Sep 2017, 10:06am
by Flex
Second place is just King Loser. C'mon picks, keep on dying!

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 28 Sep 2017, 1:26pm
by Kory
Flex wrote:
28 Sep 2017, 10:06am
Second place is just King Loser. C'mon picks, keep on dying!
I'm hoping to sweep the board in December.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 01 Oct 2017, 9:41am
by revbob
Monty Hall picked the wrong door and dies at 96.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 01 Oct 2017, 9:55am
by Dr. Medulla
revbob wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:41am
Monty Hall picked the wrong door and dies at 96.
Wait till he finds out that god is a vengeful goat.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 01 Oct 2017, 10:31am
by Wolter
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:55am
revbob wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:41am
Monty Hall picked the wrong door and dies at 96.
Wait till he finds out that god is a vengeful goat.
If you had bet me $1,000 that he was still alive, I'd have been down $1,000.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 01 Oct 2017, 10:42am
by Dr. Medulla
Wolter wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:31am
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:55am
revbob wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:41am
Monty Hall picked the wrong door and dies at 96.
Wait till he finds out that god is a vengeful goat.
If you had bet me $1,000 that he was still alive, I'd have been down $1,000.
Same. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 12:18pm
by JennyB
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:42am
Wolter wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:31am
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:55am
revbob wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:41am
Monty Hall picked the wrong door and dies at 96.
Wait till he finds out that god is a vengeful goat.
If you had bet me $1,000 that he was still alive, I'd have been down $1,000.
Same. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Just so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 12:29pm
by Dr. Medulla
JennyB wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:18pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:42am
Wolter wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:31am
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:55am
revbob wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:41am
Monty Hall picked the wrong door and dies at 96.
Wait till he finds out that god is a vengeful goat.
If you had bet me $1,000 that he was still alive, I'd have been down $1,000.
Same. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Just so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?
Right. It has to do understanding that Monty knows what's behind all the doors and not being seduced by the belief that we got it right the first time. The best of illustrating this is to think of it as if there were 100 doors and Monty reveals 98 false doors, leaving your pick and one other. What is more likely, that you picked the right one out of 100 or that Monty eliminated all but the winning door? It really is a bastard of a mindfuck that goes against our intuitive sense of probabilities, but the math is right.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 12:31pm
by JennyB
Dr. Medulla wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:29pm
JennyB wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:18pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:42am
Wolter wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:31am
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 9:55am


Wait till he finds out that god is a vengeful goat.
If you had bet me $1,000 that he was still alive, I'd have been down $1,000.
Same. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Just so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?
Right. It has to do understanding that Monty knows what's behind all the doors and not being seduced by the belief that we got it right the first time. The best of illustrating this is to think of it as if there were 100 doors and Monty reveals 98 false doors, leaving your pick and one other. What is more likely, that you picked the right one out of 100 or that Monty eliminated all but the winning door? It really is a bastard of a mindfuck that goes against our intuitive sense of probabilities, but the math is right.
Monty Hall was one magnificent bastard.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 12:33pm
by Dr. Medulla
JennyB wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:31pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:29pm
JennyB wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:18pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:42am
Wolter wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:31am


If you had bet me $1,000 that he was still alive, I'd have been down $1,000.
Same. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Just so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?
Right. It has to do understanding that Monty knows what's behind all the doors and not being seduced by the belief that we got it right the first time. The best of illustrating this is to think of it as if there were 100 doors and Monty reveals 98 false doors, leaving your pick and one other. What is more likely, that you picked the right one out of 100 or that Monty eliminated all but the winning door? It really is a bastard of a mindfuck that goes against our intuitive sense of probabilities, but the math is right.
Monty Hall was one magnificent bastard.
70 year marriage, too. She died four months before him.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 12:36pm
by JennyB
Dr. Medulla wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:33pm
JennyB wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:31pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:29pm
JennyB wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 12:18pm
Dr. Medulla wrote:
01 Oct 2017, 10:42am


Same. His death did get me to revisit The Monty Hall Problem. Years ago, it took me a long time to truly understand why the counter-intuitive answer is the correct one, but when I looked at the whole thing again this morning, right away I gravitated back to the more obvious and wrong solution. Funny how seductive false logic can be, even when you know that it's false.
Just so I don't have to actually look this up - it's better to choose the new door, right?
Right. It has to do understanding that Monty knows what's behind all the doors and not being seduced by the belief that we got it right the first time. The best of illustrating this is to think of it as if there were 100 doors and Monty reveals 98 false doors, leaving your pick and one other. What is more likely, that you picked the right one out of 100 or that Monty eliminated all but the winning door? It really is a bastard of a mindfuck that goes against our intuitive sense of probabilities, but the math is right.
Monty Hall was one magnificent bastard.
70 year marriage, too. She died four months before him.
Awww...that's really sweet.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 3:38pm
by BostonBeaneater
Tom Petty is in trouble, massive heart attack. This is a bad day all about.

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 4:13pm
by BostonBeaneater
BostonBeaneater wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 3:38pm
Tom Petty is in trouble, massive heart attack. This is a bad day all about.

He’s gone.


Image

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 4:14pm
by Rat Patrol
BostonBeaneater wrote:
02 Oct 2017, 3:38pm
Tom Petty is in trouble, massive heart attack. This is a bad day all about.
It's official: he backed down.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tom-petty- ... ead-at-66/

:meh:

Re: IMCT Celebrity Death Pool 2017

Posted: 02 Oct 2017, 4:18pm
by JennyB
That's really sad. I wasn't a huge fan, but I liked him.